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Yemen: Indicators of growth and economic recovery

The World Bank released a Country Economic Memorandum on Yemen on May 30, 2023, titled "Al Mustaqbal” (The Future): Glimmers of Hope in Dark Times." The memorandum has included a number of indicators on the challenges facing Yemen, as well as the opportunities available to achieve recovery and economic growth. The following points can be concluded:

  • Yemen's import dependence has surged to unprecedented levels, heightening its susceptibility to external shocks, and government debt has more than doubled since 2015."
  • Over the past seven years, establishing control over revenue-generating ports, informal trade routes, and oil infrastructure has become a key economic, military, and political objective. Road closures have increased the complexity of supply chains, compounding other domestic and external inflationary pressures and contributing to a massive cost-of-living crisis with deeply negative implications for poor households.
  • The deteriorating business climate has greatly reduced economic activity outside of commodity trading and construction.
  •  Most forms of employment offer low wages, poor working conditions, and little or no job security. A lack of economic opportunity continues to push young people to join armed groups, which frequently offer higher and more stable prospects than the private sector.
  • World Bank estimates suggest that real GDP contracted by approximately 50 percent between 2011 and 2021.
  • Remittances are increasingly vital to sustain consumption, and annually, they are estimated to be one-quarter—or more—of Yemen’s GDP. In 2021, official sources estimated remittance inflows at about US$4 billion, though the actual figure could be more than twice as high.
  • A geospatial data analysis conducted for this report confirms that Yemeni territory has become increasingly prone to climate-related shocks. Alternating periods of drought and flooding likely weakened agricultural productivity,exacerbating the overall decline in productivity across the economy. Farmers in rural areas experienced a considerable loss of income, buying inputs at considerably higher prices and selling produce at significantly lower prices because of transport disruptions. Consequently, many were forced to abandon their farms or limit production.
  • The destruction of fixed capital exacerbated negative growth dynamics and has slowly been eroding human capital. Labour productivity continued an already worrying pre-war trend of gradual thinning. According to the Human Capital Index, a child born in the Republic of Yemen in 2020 will be only 37 percent as productive as an adult than he/she would have been if they had enjoyed complete education and full health. This is lower than the average for the Middle East & North Africa region and slightly lower than the average for Low-Income Countries.
  • Emergency food-security assessments highlight the household-level impact of declining economic activity since 2015. Most of the population has experienced a steep decline in living standards since the start of the conflict, and the deepening humanitarian crisis has severely eroded productivity and earnings. Working conditions arepoor, employment income is insufficient to cover basic needs, and underemployment is increasingly pervasive.
  • An inhospitable environment for investment and trade that discourages Yemen’s foreign direct investment (FDI) dynamics is fragile, even by the standards of conflict-affected countries and low-income economies. Net FDI inflows have turned negative since 2011, indicating that foreign entities are disinvesting in Yemen.
  • The poverty rate has skyrocketed, exceeding 66 percent. Yemen grapples with some of the world's highest levels of food insecurity, severe malnutrition, and physical violence.
  • Even before the conflict, weak public electricity utilities, inconsistent fuel supplies and pricing, and falling prices for photovoltaic solar panels had encouraged the growth of renewables. This shift has accelerated over the course of the conflict, as the public electricity grid largely ceased to function, while the high cost of fuel made private generators less feasible.
  • In the agricultural sector, numerous farmers have adopted solar-powered pumping systems, while nongovernmental organizations have harnessed solar energy to energize health and education facilities. Investments in renewable energy hold the potential to mitigate electricity costs.

The stated views express the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Center or the work team.

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