Iraq recently declared its willingness to act as a mediator in the Yemeni crisis. This announcement was made by the Iraqi Foreign Minister, Fuad Hussein, during a press conference held alongside his Yemeni counterpart, Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak, in Baghdad on July 23. Minister Hussein proposed the idea of hosting consultative meetings among the various Yemeni parties. The primary objective of these meetings is to transition from an unspoken truce to a political resolution, leveraging Iraq's favourable relations with local and regional stakeholders.

This development arises within the context of the Iraq-Yemen agreement to strengthen diplomatic ties at the official level. Both nations have also signed an agreement for political consultations.

While the Yemeni Foreign Minister expressed his appreciation for Iraq's offer to mediate and extended courtesies for an Iraqi consular delegation to visit Yemen to assess the situation of the Iraqi community, he also underscored several challenges that must be addressed on the path to resolving the Yemeni crisis. These challenges pertain to the Houthi movement's unwavering stance against a political solution, as well as their involvement in economic warfare and hindrance of humanitarian access.

While the Yemeni Foreign Minister extended a warm welcome to Iraq's offer to mediate and offered potential support for an Iraqi consular delegation's visit to Yemen to assess the well-being of the Iraqi community, he also emphasised the existence of several daunting challenges along the road to resolving the Yemeni crisis. These challenges are intricately linked to the uncompromising stance and conduct of the Houthi movement, which remains resolute in its resistance to a political resolution. Furthermore, the situation is compounded by ongoing economic hostilities and disruptions to humanitarian access."

Baghdad as a new mediator:

The Sultanate of Oman played the role of mediator between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi movement in the context of the regional solution. It was expected that this role would constitute a breakthrough in the crisis in light of the regional détente and the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement through Chinese mediation, which paved the way for the meetings that brought together delegations from Tehran and Riyadh and were hosted by Baghdad.

However, the Omani mediation did not achieve the desired breakthrough between Riyadh and the Houthis in light of the differences in viewpoints between the two parties. Riyadh considers that the entitlements of the current stage require the formulation of a road map for a political solution.

On the other hand, the Houthi movement imposes its own conditions to achieve further gains as an entitlement to impose a truce, regardless of the political process.

There is a belief that the Iraqi role does not overlap with that of Oman but rather follows a parallel trajectory, possibly stemming from similar underlying factors. However, it operates on a different level concerning the involved parties in the Yemeni crisis.

Iraqi mediation commences within the framework of fostering relations between the legitimate Yemeni government and the Houthi movement at the local level. It then extends to involve Tehran and Riyadh at the regional level. The focus on engagement with the legitimate Yemeni government serves as a distinct advantage in this context.

This approach ensures that no party is marginalized in the process. Moreover, it sidesteps the issue encountered by Saudi Arabia's mediation role, which the Houthi movement rejects. Riyadh has expressed its interest in mediating between the legitimate government and the Houthis, but the Houthi movement views Saudi Arabia as a participant rather than a neutral mediator

It's worth noting that Baghdad has garnered significant experience over the past period in fostering closer ties between Iran and Arab parties. In addition, the Baghdad regional conferences held in the last two years have established a platform for Arab regional dialogue. However, it is widely believed that mediating in the intricate Yemeni crisis demands a distinct approach.

While the crisis undoubtedly possesses regional dimensions, the depth of its internal complexities, particularly between the recognized government and the insurgent Houthi movement, may surpass the capacity of any regional actor to propose a comprehensive political solution

The Nature of Iraq's Vision:

The speech by Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein provides insights into Iraq's perception of its role as a mediator in the Yemeni crisis. This perspective can be understood through the following key points:

1. Preliminary Stage: Iraq's primary goal is to initiate dialogue between the local parties involved in the crisis, namely the legitimate government and the Houthi rebels. This dialogue aims to explore each party's vision for resolving the current crisis. It's important to note that this phase is not considered a full-fledged political process but rather a preliminary stage. It sets the foundation for potential future political processes.
2. Economic and Humanitarian Approach: The Iraqi Foreign Minister has identified the economic aspects as a potential entry point to the agenda of discussions, with the aim of bringing the two parties to the table for resolution. This approach addresses the Houthi movement's stance on ceasefire entitlements and acknowledges the severe humanitarian crisis in Yemen, which ranks among the most pressing humanitarian crises globally.
3. The Role of Legitimacy: Iraq's role emphasizes the centrality of legitimacy in any political solution. While previous negotiations between Riyadh and the Houthis, mediated by Oman, had gone beyond the scope of legitimacy, Iraq's mediation efforts are firmly rooted in legitimacy. As evidence of its commitment, Iraq has taken steps to resume diplomatic relations between the two countries. However, it's essential to acknowledge the potential challenges posed by subsidiary relationships that might complicate this path. During the preceding period, the ties between the Houthi movement and Iran-affiliated factions in Iraq grew stronger than official-level relationships.
4. A Regional Solution: Minister Hussein highlighted Iraq's positive relations with all relevant parties, and Baghdad's consultations between the legitimate government and the Houthis will consider the positions of key regional powers, namely Riyadh and Tehran. Iraq maintains favorable relations with both parties. However, despite Iraq's potential as a neutral mediator, regional assessments suggest that Tehran's influence in Baghdad could exert a form of guardianship over Iraqi actions. It's important to note that Iraq has commended Saudi efforts in the Yemeni crisis, implying that consultations would require a green light from both Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Considering the tenets of Iraq's vision, several challenges stand out regarding Iraq's offer to participate in resolving the Yemeni crisis. These challenges include:

A Transitional Settlement: Iraq's approach focuses on addressing immediate issues with economic and humanitarian dimensions, rather than a comprehensive political solution. While these issues are undoubtedly crucial and attract international attention, as they are vital for stabilizing the security situation and facilitating humanitarian relief efforts, there is no guarantee that they will evolve into a full-fledged political process. On the contrary, they may bolster the Houthi agenda as accomplishments that can be leveraged. This underscores the Yemeni Foreign Minister's emphasis on adhering to the three negotiation references: the Gulf Initiative, Resolution 2216, and the outcomes of the National Dialogue.

Lack of Balance in the Regional Equation: As previously noted, past experiences suggest that Tehran wields influence over the role of the Iraqi government concerning its regional proxies. In contrast, Riyadh's acceptance of Iraq as a mediator represents a concession by Saudi Arabia, which had sought to play a mediation role itself. This imbalance in the equation warrants consideration.

In conclusion, Iraq's entry into the mediation efforts for the Yemeni crisis is seen as a valuable contribution towards breaking the deadlock in the ongoing negotiations, especially as the relationship between Riyadh and the Houthi faction appears to have reached an impasse.

Both Riyadh and Tehran appear to be placing some degree of hope in Baghdad's approach, which seeks to address interim issues as transitional steps while a comprehensive solution to the Yemeni crisis remains elusive.

It's worth noting that Iraq is currently in the initial presentation phase, and there has not been explicit or public acceptance of the Iraqi proposal by the involved parties. Iraqi reports have suggested that the proposed visit of the Yemeni Foreign Minister to Baghdad serves the purpose of formally announcing the Iraqi initiative.

While private meetings between Foreign Minister Bin Mubarak and Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid, Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sawadni, and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein may have delved into more comprehensive details than what has been made public. These undisclosed specifics could provide Iraq with the means to engage with various other stakeholders and garner their responses to the initiatives it has put forward.

However, from a tactical perspective, both Baghdad and the Yemeni legitimate government are initially focused on strengthening and enhancing their bilateral relations. This could serve as a motivation for the legitimate government, and the activation of the official-level joint committee between the two countries plays a crucial role in this regard.

This strengthening of ties can also be leveraged to advance Baghdad's proposed role as a mediator. Therefore, it can be suggested that Baghdad has the potential to break the current impasse in resolving the crisis, even by pursuing economic and humanitarian approaches that could contribute to a partial resolution of the crisis.

Addressing these challenges may require a departure from the current status quo in Yemen. While extracting Iraq from a deal or achieving a partial solution presents its own set of challenges, it could potentially offer the minimum escape route from the vicious economic cycle plaguing Yemen.

This approach might serve as a starting point towards achieving a comprehensive ceasefire in the country, resuming the export of oil and gas, and allowing the legitimate government to regain control over this critical aspect without undue interference from the Houthi movement. It's imperative that the legitimate government fulfils its role in disbursing salaries to employees through established, legitimate channels rather than parallel avenues controlled by the Houthi movement

To rectify the issue of imbalance in the regional equation concerning differing perceptions of the solution, it is imperative that Tehran grants its approval for Baghdad to take action and secures Iran's acceptance of the outcomes that Baghdad can achieve through dialogue. It is crucial for Tehran to afford Baghdad the necessary maneuvering room to act as a bona fide mediator rather than merely serving as a host for consultative meetings between the involved parties. Any behind-the-scenes involvement by Tehran to steer the dialogue in a direction that prioritizes their interests over those of the Yemeni parties must be avoided.