When the Beijing Agreement, sponsored by China, was announced on March 10, 2023, signalling the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, it sparked great anticipation regarding its potential impact on Yemen. This anticipation stems from three crucial considerations:

First and foremost, Yemen holds a unique significance for both signatory parties, Saudi Arabia and Iran. For Saudi Arabia, it represents a strategic cornerstone, a place where it has tirelessly pursued a political resolution to the Yemeni crisis. Such a resolution is not only essential for ending the worsening humanitarian situation but also aligns with Saudi Arabia's national interests, security, development aspirations, and significant strategic endeavours.

On the other hand, Yemen serves as a vital springboard for Iran to bolster its influence and expansion across the Middle East. It also positions Iran closer to key global transportation routes via the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea. Consequently, it equips Iran with leverage against its regional and international adversaries, most notably the United States of America and Israel.

Former Iranian Intelligence Minister Heider Moslehi's statement on April 1, 2015, when he claimed that "Iran controls four Arab capitals," underscores the significance of the regional domain Iran envisions and seeks to realise through various means. These means include supporting terrorist and armed militias and expanding the role of the Revolutionary Guard's 'Quds Force,' which is responsible for foreign operations."

The second critical factor is Iran's historical inability to uphold strict international or regional commitments over the past decades. Iran has demonstrated a pattern of circumventing treaties and agreements with both regional and international parties. A notable instance of this behaviour is the nuclear agreement between Iran and the '5+1' group (comprising the United States of America, France, Britain, China, Russia, and Germany) reached on July 14, 2015.

Iran exploited the loopholes within this agreement, enabling it to evade compliance with many of its provisions. This was particularly evident in Iran's approach to the provision imposing a ban on ballistic missile activities. Despite this provision, Iran continued the development of ballistic missiles, contending that the standards referred to in the ban, outlined in Security Council Resolution No. 2231, did not apply to the ballistic missiles in its possession. Iran argued that these missiles were not designed for carrying nuclear weapons.

Additionally, Iran persistently violated Security Council resolutions, such as Resolutions 2216 and 2231, by clandestinely smuggling weapons to the Houthi militia in Yemen. Iran relied on the assumption that international powers, including the United States of America, France, and Britain, would overlook these infractions to preserve the nuclear agreement.

Despite the clear evidence provided by the seizure of these shipments, confirming Iran's violation of these resolutions, the Security Council did not take any action, nor did any concerned international entity or party to the nuclear agreement formally file a complaint with the Council regarding Iran's failure to meet its obligations under the nuclear deal.

Such actions could have facilitated activating the 'SNAPBACK' mechanism, designed to reinstate international sanctions on Iran, which were in effect before the nuclear agreement and were suspended following its conclusion.

Notably, during the first three months of 2023, US and British naval forces intercepted seven arms shipments from Iran destined for militia strongholds in Yemen. On March 2, 2023, the US Navy reported that their tracking operations resulted in the seizure of more than 5,000 weapons, 1.6 million rounds of ammunition, 7,000 rocket fuses, 2,100 kilograms of fuel used for launching rocket-propelled grenades, and 30 anti-tank weapons. The estimated value of these intercepted items, including guided missiles, medium-range ballistic missile components, and illicit drugs, exceeds $80 million."

Thirdly, the signing of the Beijing Agreement to restore diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran occurred alongside a flurry of activities and initiatives by numerous regional and international stakeholders. These efforts aimed to increase the likelihood of resolving the Yemeni crisis to alleviate the escalating humanitarian catastrophe and address the economic and living hardships inflicted upon the Yemeni population due to actions taken by the Houthi rebel militia.

One significant development encapsulating the current Yemeni situation was the meeting held in Riyadh on August 9, 2023, between Yemen's Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriate Affairs, Ahmed bin Mubarak, and the UN Special Envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg. During this meeting, they underscored the Yemeni government's dedication to alleviating the suffering of its people and its commitment to realising comprehensive and equitable peace. Additionally, Ahmed bin Mubarak raised concerns about the enduring economic crisis and the deteriorating humanitarian conditions stemming from the actions of the Houthi militia. He emphasised the need for a robust international response to address these challenges.

Numerous Motivations

Iran has not displayed any indications of revising its regional policy, specifically concerning Yemen, in response to the altered dynamics following the signing of the Beijing Agreement to reestablish diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia. It appears that Iran continues to convey a clear message to concerned parties, asserting its intent to maintain the status quo in its foreign policy during the upcoming phase.

Revolutionary Guard Commander Hossein Salami conveyed a significant message during a meeting of leaders and officials of the Basij, also known as the Organization for the Mobilization of the Oppressed, in early August 2023. Salami emphasised that 'American hegemony has waned,' he noted that the United States has lost its position as the world's foremost superpower. He further observed that some United States' allies are now gravitating towards Iran, China, and Russia.

Salami asserted, 'Every nation that placed its trust in America has faced decline and collapse, while those, like Yemen, that relied on Iran, have remained steadfast.' This statement alluded to the Houthi rebel militia's dependence on Iran as its primary regional supporter, a relationship that predated the militia's coup against constitutional legitimacy on September 21, 2014."

This can be explained in light of several motivations:

1. Pursuing a Dual Foreign Policy: Iran consistently employs a dual foreign policy approach, or more precisely, engages in 'speaking in multiple tongues' when dealing with various regional and international powers involved in Middle East affairs. While the signing of the Beijing Agreement to restore diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia was approved by numerous institutions within the Iranian regime, other influential institutions have been cautious about taking a definitive stance on this development. Saudi Arabia's aim with this step is to increase the prospects of achieving peace and stability in Yemen, which would have direct implications for security and stability in the broader Middle East region.

It can be argued that Iran intentionally maintains this dual policy as it affords greater flexibility and a more comprehensive range of options. According to the perspective of Iranian decision-makers, this approach enables Iran to obtain strategic advantages from the unfolding events in the Middle East without making substantial concessions. This duality is especially evident in Iran's stance toward the Houthi government in Sanaa, which Iran still regards as the 'legitimate government.' Iran even hosts the representative of this government in Tehran, the 'Houthi Ambassador' Ibrahim Mohammed al-Dailami. Al-Dailami consistently underscores Iran's support for the Yemeni movement. For instance, on May 8, 2023, approximately two months after the signing of the Beijing Agreement, he asserted that 'Iran is the sole nation that has steadfastly stood by the Yemeni people.'"

2. Ensuring Interconnected Agendas: Iran consistently integrates its influence in Yemen within its broader regional strategies. This approach compels Iran to align its Yemeni interests with its dealings with regional and international adversaries. Notably, Iran has recently amplified its claims of influence in Yemen, particularly in Sanaa, in tandem with the stagnation of negotiations regarding the nuclear agreement with the United States of America.

Recently, the Biden administration has sought to establish an understanding with Iran. These discussions encompass Iran's refraining from further escalatory actions in its nuclear program, such as increasing enriched uranium production by 60%. In return, there would be a relaxation of U.S. sanctions, the transfer of frozen Iranian funds to select accounts in Oman or Qatar for designated purposes like food and medicine, and the potential negotiation of a prisoner exchange agreement.

However, these understandings have not yielded significant outcomes, prompting Iran to send periodic escalatory messages to the United States. This was evident in Iran's recent review of its naval capabilities, particularly during manoeuvres conducted on August 2, 2023, where it unveiled new cruise missiles like the 'Abu Mahdi' missile, boasting a range of up to 600 kilometres.

In a related context, the Houthi militia has also aligned itself with this escalation. On August 9, 2023, they labelled the deployment of U.S. warships and forces in the Red Sea as a hostile act, expressing concerns about its impact on navigation traffic. Ali Al-Qhoom, a member of the Ansar Allah group’s political bureau, voiced these concerns on Twitter, stating, “We are vigilantly observing the consistent presence of American forces and warships along the Yemeni coast, the strategically vital Bab al-Mandab, and adjacent islands. They have temporarily stationed troops at various military bases, including Al-Anad, Khor Amira (Lahj Governorate), Hadramaut, Al-Mahra, Socotra, and Mayon. These developments are viewed as part of ongoing actions with hostile intent and perceived as sinister plots aimed at Yemen and the broader region.'

MG Muhammad Al-Qadri, Commander of the Coastal Defence Forces, affirmed, “The Coastal Defense Forces are fully prepared to respond and deter should American forces approach Yemen's territorial waters."

3. Managing Escalation with Israel: While Yemen may appear distant from the ongoing escalation dynamics between Iran and Israel, it is essential to recognise that tensions have recently intensified. This escalation is primarily driven by widening disagreements between the two parties, notably concerning the nuclear agreement, ballistic missile programs, and Iran's expanding regional influence near Israel's borders, including Syria, Lebanon, and Palestinian territories.

The trajectory of these tensions may not remain unchanged shortly, particularly if the escalation reaches unprecedented levels. Israel is motivated to curb the advancement of Iran's nuclear program, which it views as a direct threat. It may consider initiating a new phase, as indicated by its recent intelligence operations targeting nuclear and missile facilities, nuclear scientists, and Iranian military leaders.

Notably, in recent times, pro-Iranian militias in the region have shown commitment to engaging in potential military conflicts involving Iran, whether with Israel or the United States of America.

The Houthi movement, for instance, issued a stern warning to Israel, asserting its readiness to respond to any potential Israeli attack. Yahya Saree, the Houthi military spokesman, emphasised on August 28, 2022, that 'the Yemeni armed forces caution the Israeli adversary about the consequences of any rash actions. Provocations will not be met with silence but rather with a fitting response.'"

In conclusion, Yemen stands at the cusp of numerous strategic considerations. While the signing of the Beijing Agreement on March 10, 2023, to restore diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia has injected positive momentum, Iran's persistent adherence to a dual policy and the linkage of its influence in Yemen with ongoing escalations involving the United States of America and Israel introduce additional variables that will shape the future trajectory of the Yemeni crisis.