Previous periods have presented significant and promising signs and advancements in achieving a political settlement to the Yemeni crisis. This is particularly evident with the Houthi militia's declaration on December 8, 2023, conveyed by its official spokesperson and head of the negotiating delegation, Mohammed Abdul-Salam. The announcement highlighted progress in approving a roadmap to end the conflict in Yemen and surmount the impediments preventing its settlement.

These statements followed affirmations from certain Yemeni circles that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia had completed the provisions of the roadmap. Subsequently, they were delivered to the UN envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, for presentation to the Houthi leaders in Sana’a. While these indications instil a measure of optimism concerning the resolution of some lingering issues associated with the political settlement in Yemen, this settlement encounters several ramifications that impede its progress.

In this context, this paper attempts to address pivotal inquiries regarding the nature of ongoing efforts and whether they signify a peace process unfolding in Yemen or if they constitute a political settlement initiative akin to prior ones. Additionally, the paper seeks to illuminate the primary motivations propelling this initiative forward and delve into the principal challenges it encounters.

Intense movement

Previous periods have experienced heightened activity, both domestically within Yemen and in movements associated with regional, national, and international actors engaged in the Yemeni crisis. These actions underscored the resurgence of the Yemeni issue, despite regional and global attention being directed towards the Palestinian War following "Al-Aqsa Flood" operation on October 7, 2023. The most notable recent movements pertaining to the Yemeni issue can be succinctly outlined as follows:

1. UN Envoy’s discussions in Oman: In late November 2023, the UN envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, embarked on a visit to the Omani capital, Muscat, where he met with various Omani and Yemeni officials, aiming to propel the peace process forward ^([1]). The envoy's office, in a published press statement, noted Grundberg's meetings with high-ranking Omani officials, where Grundberg conveyed his gratitude for the ongoing support extended by the Sultanate of Oman to the peace endeavours led by the United Nations.

The UN envoy, Mohammed Abdul-Salam, also met with the chief negotiator of the Houthi militia to "explore opportunities for strengthening collaboration among Yemeni stakeholders in addressing urgent economic concerns and attaining a nationwide ceasefire. This includes the resumption of an inclusive political process under the auspices of the United Nations." As outlined in the statement, Grundberg also held meetings with representatives from diverse Yemeni political parties, delving into strategies to progress toward a political settlement that mirrors the aspirations and priorities of all segments of Yemeni society.

2. Gulf Tour by the US Envoy to Yemen: In mid-November 2023, the US special envoy to Yemen, Tim Lenderking, embarked on a Gulf tour, where he met with Yemeni, Saudi Arabia, Omani, Emirati, and international officials^([2]). The primary agenda of these meetings was to deliberate on essential measures to secure a permanent ceasefire and initiate a comprehensive political process under the guidance of the United Nations. Additionally, discussions centred on sustained efforts to alleviate the economic crisis and the hardships faced by the Yemeni populace. The UN envoy's visit to Riyadh and his meeting with Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, particularly in relation to discussions on the proposed roadmap in the Yemeni issue, underscored the notable dynamics of the international initiatives in this context.
3. United Nations' Ceasefire Call: On November 7, 2023, the United Nations renewed its efforts to establish a permanent ceasefire in Yemen as a precursor to initiating a comprehensive peace process aimed at resolving the protracted armed conflict spanning over nine years. During this initiative, UN representative to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, visited Tehran and engaged in discussions with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian^([3]). Grundberg emphasised the need for a "permanent" ceasefire in Yemen and urged "the resumption of an inclusive political process" under the auspices of the United Nations.

In a statement, Grundberg elaborated on his visit to Tehran, saying that “he met with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and various senior Iranian officials.” He also added that “The discussions revolved around the significance of advancing towards an agreement on measures to enhance living conditions in Yemen, ensuring a permanent nationwide ceasefire, and recommencing an inclusive political process under the auspices of the United Nations.”

4. Riyadh Deliberations between Saudi Arabia & the Houthis: In September 2023, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia hosted a five-day round of deliberations between its officials and a delegation of Houthi negotiators^([4]). According to a Reuters report, these deliberations marked relative progress on several lingering issues. Notably, such progress included establishing a timetable for withdrawing foreign forces from Yemen and formulating a mechanism for disbursing government employees' wages, along with an agreement to schedule another round of deliberations shortly to finalise the ongoing consultations.
5.  Houthi Announcement on Deliberations Progress: The latest significant indicators regarding the advancement of deliberations on the proposed initiative were disclosed by the official spokesperson for the Houthi militia and the head of the negotiating delegation, Mohammed Abdul-Salam, on December 9, 2023^([5]). In his statement, he affirmed that strides had been taken towards approving a roadmap to end the conflict in Yemen and surmount the obstacles hindering its resolution. Abdul Salam conveyed in a post on the “X” platform: "We met with the UN Special Envoy to Yemen, discussing the humanitarian, political, and military dimensions, highlighting progress in the roadmap and overcoming key obstacles." He outlined key objectives, stating, "To ensure an end to the aggression and siege, payment of salaries to all Yemeni employees, release of all prisoners and detainees, exit of foreign forces from Yemen, reconstruction, and preparation for political dialogue.

Rationale for the "Initiative"

The indicators set forth signify an intense movement involving various Yemeni, regional, and international parties committed to addressing the Yemeni crisis. Their collective efforts aim to forge a political initiative that holds the potential to propel a more expansive and inclusive resolution to the ongoing Yemeni crisis. Nevertheless, it is imperative to acknowledge that within this context, the discernible rationale for the current movement and its associated discussions indicates an intent to endorse a "political initiative." This initiative, as it stands, is positioned more as a provisional roadmap rather than a comprehensive settlement plan for the crisis.

Evidently, the present "initiative" has been conveyed to the UN envoy for further refinement at the technical and procedural levels, laying the groundwork for its formal announcement. Within this framework, the key items or rationales for this initiative are encapsulated in the following summary:

1. Re-exporting Oil and Unifying the Currency: The forthcoming initiative carries an air of uncertainty and ambiguity regarding its specifics. However, statements from both UN officials and Houthi negotiators suggest a predominant focus on the economic dimension as a starting point to address lingering issues. Within this context, indications point to specific arrangements concerning the announcement of the resumption of Yemeni crude oil exports. Additionally, the initiative may encompass measures such as the unification of the currency, the withdrawal of the existing two currencies from circulation, the introduction of a new currency, and the relocating of the bank's headquarters to Sana’a. Notably, there are indications that Saudi Arabia might undertake the responsibility of disbursing salaries to employees in Houthi-controlled areas for a stipulated period of six months.
2. Humanitarian Emphasis in Yemen's Political Settlement: Ongoing discussions seem to centre, in one of their dimensions, on the humanitarian aspect, parallel to the economic considerations. In this context, it is probable that the envisioned initiative, particularly in its humanitarian dimension, will encompass the release of all the involved parties’ prisoners, the road openings, and the resumption of flights from all airports. Moreover, there is an indication of a proposed extension to the humanitarian truce in Yemen, aligning with the Houthis' strategy, emphasising separating the humanitarian dimension from other political and military resolution avenues.
3. Ambiguity Surrounding Political Files in Yemen: The political issue emerges as a pivotal determinant governing the trajectory of the Yemeni crisis, extending beyond mere considerations related to the proposed reconstruction of the Yemeni political system. Its significance encompasses the broader task of rebuilding the national state in Yemen as a whole. The crisis is exacerbated by the presence of numerous authoritative structures in Yemen, involving the internationally recognised government, the Houthi government, and the Southern Transitional Council. This complex scenario poses a significant challenge to the path of political resolution. Nevertheless, it is anticipated that this process may unfold in multiple stages, initially through a settlement between the Houthis and the legitimate forces. This, in turn, could serve as a stepping stone towards achieving a comprehensive settlement involving all Yemeni parties.

In this context, reports have suggested an agreement to establish two governments in Sana’a and Aden during the post-agreement phase, tasked with managing the transitional period until the comprehensive solution phase is realised. Subsequently, plans include the formation of a national unity government. Notably, concerning the "southern issue," there is consensus to defer the framework for its resolution until the "final solution negotiations." Additionally, there is potential for Saudi Arabia to propose changes at the level of the authority aligned with it in Yemen^([6]).

In broad terms, some assessments suggest that the initial proposal for the current initiative was first proposed in April 2023, stemming from discussions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, mediated by Oman. This initiative outlined a proposed roadmap, dividing the negotiation process into three stages to be executed within two years. The initial six months of which were earmarked for confidence-building measures. These measures included the payment of salaries to employees in Houthi-controlled areas based on 2014 statements of oil and gas resources, removing restrictions on sea, land, and air ports, consolidating the Central Bank, and withdrawing coalition forces from Yemen. Some reports indicate unanimous approval of this proposal by all members of the Presidential Leadership Council.

Motivating Contexts:

The current surge in activity within Yemen has gained impetus due to several motivating factors and determinants. These can be elucidated as follows:

1. The State of Relative Calm between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia: A primary motivation behind the proposed initiative lies in the discernible breakthrough in relations between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi militia. This is evident in the recurring discussions between the two parties, coupled with mutual commendation. The emerging indications of consensus on certain contentious issues are noteworthy, reflecting Saudi Arabia's inclination to mitigate the repercussions and costs of the Yemeni war. This aligns with its pursuit of key interests and the initiation of substantial development projects. The significance of this development extends beyond fostering bilateral agreements; it also plays a crucial role in garnering acceptance for this vision within the Presidential Leadership Council. This, in turn, enhances its level of acceptability among various stakeholders in the Yemeni political landscape.
2. Relative Support by Some Parties for the Initiative: The potential initiative has garnered implicit support from key actors in the Yemeni issue, including the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Iran, and Qatar, in addition to the United Nations. Notably, the United States appears to support this trajectory as a means to, even if relatively, neutralise the Houthis amidst the ongoing tensions resulting from the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip. This conjecture gains credence from the United States refraining from punitive measures in response to Houthi operations in the Red Sea, such as resisting reclassification as a terrorist organisation. This effort aims to avoid hindering the progress of the ongoing initiative.
3. Saudi De-escalation with Iran Against the Backdrop of the Beijing Agreement: The potential initiative emerges as a significant outcome of the Beijing Agreement, signed on March 10, 2023, which marked the restoration of Saudi-Iranian relations. The understandings reached and the progress achieved in the Yemeni issue will be a crucial litmus test for the efficacy of this Saudi-Iranian agreement. Yet, the ultimate determinant of this outcome hinges on the extent of commitment demonstrated by the Houthis and their ally, Iran, to the agreed-upon outcomes within the framework of this initiative.

Existing Challenges:

While the paper operates under the premise that the recent intensive discussions surrounding the Yemeni crisis and the potential initiatives stemming from them offer hope for partial resolution of some lingering issues, potentially paving the way for a comprehensive agreement in the future, this trajectory encounters several significant challenges. These challenges include:

1. The Houthis' Involvement in the Repercussions of "Al-Aqsa Flood" Operation: The Houthis' entanglement in the aftermath of the "Al-Aqsa Flood" operation, with their participation taking increasingly escalatory forms—particularly in the recent attacks on Israeli ships in the Red Sea and the repeated targeting of Eilat—poses a primary challenge to the ongoing initiative. This involvement not only provokes the American side but also constitutes a significant threat to maritime security in the Red Sea.
2. The Continued Houthi Mobilisation and Agitation: Despite intense efforts by active parties in the Yemeni issue to usher in the announcement of the new initiative, the Houthis have hinted on multiple occasions at the prospect of targeting the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia. Moreover, there is a visible mobilisation of their military forces towards the governorates of Marib, Taiz, Ad Dali', Lahij, and Shabwah, outlining a map of potential attacks by the militia. These indicators not only strain the trust between conflicting parties but also suggest that the Houthis may aim to leverage the outcomes of the proposed initiative. Their potential strategy involves a cessation of hostilities, salary payments, and the complete reopening of Sana’a Airport and Hudaydah Port. This sequence may serve to reorganise their forces and significantly enhance their military capabilities, particularly with the infusion of additional financial resources under the agreement.
3. Tensions in Southern Yemen: Tensions in southern Yemen are heightened as the Southern Transitional Council is cautious about the impending initiative. Two primary considerations underscore this conservative approach: Firstly, the Council expresses dissatisfaction with the initiative's marginalisation of the southern issue. It demands the formation of a dedicated southern delegation to negotiate the future of this matter within any consultations for the final solution. Secondly, the Council vehemently refuses to share oil revenues in the south of governorates with the Houthis, rejecting such a prospect under any circumstances or external pressures
4. The US Contradictions Regarding the Initiative: There are indications of contradictions within the US position regarding the potential initiative. While outwardly supporting its announcement, there are suggestions that the United States seeks to exploit existing contradictions within the Presidential Leadership Council. The aim is to influence reservations about the initiative, underlining the necessity for the agreement to address all lingering issues comprehensively.

In conclusion, the imminent initiative, set to be unveiled through a Saudi-Omani-UN partnership, signifies a significant breakthrough in addressing the prolonged stagnation witnessed in the Yemeni issue over recent months. However, it confronts substantial challenges linked, on the one hand, to the repercussions of regional tensions impacting the Yemeni interior and, on the other hand, to the internal state of division and dual power within Yemen, casting implications on various actors involved.